Going by half-year records, Nigeria’s exports to Africa have risen 675.9 percent in naira value over six years, an almost eight-fold increase that experts say could partly reflect the naira’s depreciation rather than a comparable expansion in real export earnings. The increase points to the dominance of crude oil and petroleum products in Nigeria’s export basket, raising concerns that the country’s export growth may obscure underlying weaknesses in non-oil trade, ARINZE NWAFOR reports
Nigeria’s exports to African countries in the first half of 2026 jumped by 122.26 per cent to N10.72tn, from N4.82tn in the corresponding period of 2025, as crude oil and related petroleum products grew more dominant amid experts’ warning that the situation is masking the naira illusion.
Findings from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade in goods reports for the first two quarters of 2026 show that crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea jointly accounted for 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in H1 2026, valued at about N10.15tn, up from a 90.24 per cent share, valued at N4.35tn, in H1 2025.
The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, faster than the 122.26 per cent overall growth in exports to Africa, meaning the surge in trade with the continent was driven disproportionately by petroleum products rather than the non-oil exports that the Federal Government has championed.
By contrast, identifiable non-oil products in the two periods, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, fell in value, from about N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026, a decline of 4.15 per cent, even as total exports to Africa nearly doubled. Their share of total exports to the continent nearly halved, from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent, over the same period.
The oil-versus-non-oil breakdown figures are estimates by The PUNCH, based on the top 14 to 15 product lines disclosed in the NBS’s quarterly top-traded-products data for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 and 2026, as the NBS does not separately publish a full per-product breakdown of total exports to Africa.
The trend comes amid the Federal Government’s push for non-oil exports and the entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery into the export market.
Nigeria’s exports to Africa stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020, before contracting to N963bn in H1 2021 and N904.05bn in H1 2022.
The figures rebounded to N1.31tn in H1 2023, jumped to N4.21tn in H1 2024, a growth of 221.32 per cent, the steepest half-year rise in the period, before growing modestly to N4.82tn in H1 2025 and nearly tripling again to N10.72tn in H1 2026.
In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, warned against reading Nigeria’s naira-denominated trade figures at face value, describing the pattern as a “naira illusion” tied to the currency’s devaluation.
Naira illusion refers to the appearance of rapid trade growth that is driven mainly by the naira’s devaluation and the resulting inflation, rather than by any real increase in the dollar value of goods traded.
Teriba said a weaker exchange rate could make trade figures look bigger in naira terms without any underlying change in dollar revenue. “If you got $10 last year and you devalue it, you still got $10. When you go to naira, you say I got N10 last year, and I got N100 this year because the exchange rate has gone to 10 to 1. Only a fool will be happy about that, because nothing has changed,” he said.
The economist said the currency’s depreciation was not deliberately engineered to inflate revenue figures, noting that Nigeria had run down its reserves and could no longer meet forex demand at the old official rate before the naira was floated.
He added: “It creates the illusion of increased price. Nobody is denying that. But we are saying it is an illusion.” He maintained that a stronger naira, not a weaker one, was in Nigeria’s interest because it would help rein in inflation while calling for a cleaner measurement of intra-African trade in dollars.
The economist further noted that the Dangote refinery had lifted Nigeria’s trade with Africa. “Dangote Refinery came on stream right around 2024, and it tracks with the increased exports. Stripping away what proceeds from Dangote Refinery will give us a clearer look.”
Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer, Alpine Supply Chain Solutions, Marcel Mba, a trade and supply chain expert, also linked the surge chiefly to petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery.
“What I see as contributing to a significant increase in Nigeria’s export to African countries would obviously be refined petroleum products and petrochemicals from Dangote Refinery,” Mba said.
He cautioned against crediting much of the over 100 per cent growth to non-oil trade. “Saying that a reasonable part of the over 100 per cent increase can be attributed to non-oil export to other African countries is unrealistic, if not outrightly misleading,” Mba said.
He listed cement, alcoholic bitters and other drinks, vehicles from Innoson Motors, and floor tiles as non-oil products that could plausibly be adding modest growth to Nigeria’s exports to the continent, stressing that these had witnessed significant growth in local production and were likely expanding into West African markets.
Mba also called for more disaggregated trade data, stating, “The NBS and the Nigerian Customs Service can make life easier for researchers and businesses by making detailed, accurate and verifiable information available on per-product-category exports by countries.”
He called on both agencies to provide a product-by-product breakdown of the N10.72tn figure.
Weak industrial base
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group, in a separate analysis, raised concerns about Nigeria’s thin manufacturing content even as trade volumes grew. “The share of manufactured goods in Nigeria’s total exports increased steadily to 4.3 per cent in Q3 2025 before falling sharply to 1.4 per cent in Q1 2026,” the NESG stated.
The think-tank noted that manufactured goods made up just 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in Q1 2026, down from 2.0 per cent in Q3 2025.
It said Nigeria was unlikely to fully harness the opportunities of the African Continental Free Trade Area unless it accelerated the development of a competitive manufacturing sector.
The NESG stressed that it would require Nigeria to cut dependence on crude oil exports and expand domestic value addition – a position that manufacturers have campaigned for.
In his remarks on Nigeria’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product figures, the Director-General of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, renewed long-term concerns that the country’s industrial base remained weak and its output performed less competitively in the global market.
He said, “The drop in manufacturing’s contribution to GDP from 9.57 per cent to 7.72 per cent in a single quarter highlights severe cost pressure, a high exchange rate, outrageous interest rates and exorbitant electricity tariffs facing domestic manufacturers.”
Although manufacturing expanded year-on-year by 3.24 per cent, Ajayi-Kadir noted that “its declining relative share indicates that industrial expansion is lagging behind broader economic activity.”
A notable implication of the continued weakness of the manufacturing sector is the erosion of industrial capacity and technological obsolescence.
Ajayi-Kadir explained: “Suffocating under exorbitant energy tariffs and prohibitive borrowing costs, manufacturers, particularly small and medium industries, are operating far below installed capacity. Instead of expanding production lines or acquiring modern technology, most factories are fighting to keep the lights on, leaving Nigerian industries less competitive globally.”
Further breakdown
A country and commodity breakdown of Q2 2026 alone showed Nigeria’s exports to Africa in the quarter stood at N6.65tn, led by Togo with N1.50tn, South Africa with N1.34tn, Ivory Coast with N1.22tn, Ghana with N461.36bn and Egypt with N455.81bn, which jointly accounted for 74.75 per cent of the quarter’s exports to the continent.
Crude petroleum oils alone made up 48.58 per cent of that quarter’s exports, valued at N3.23tn, followed by gas oil at N1.32tn, kerosene-type jet fuel at N975.37bn and ordinary motor spirit at N416.78bn, with the top five products jointly accounting for 91.60 per cent of exports to Africa in the quarter.
